Olive Oil Prices in 2025: Trends, Drivers and Outlook
Introduction
Olive oil is both a culinary staple and a traded agricultural commodity. In 2025, the market is experiencing a complex mix of pressures — from harvest yields and weather, to supply chain costs, demand dynamics, and regulatory or trade shifts. Understanding the price movements is essential for producers, traders, wholesalers, and even consumers. In this article, we review the current state of olive oil pricing in 2025, the main factors influencing price changes, regional differences, and expectations for the rest of the year.
Recent Price Trends
- In many Mediterranean-producing countries, olive oil prices have been declining during early to mid-2025.
- For example, in Spain, average extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) prices dropped below €4.00 per kg in early 2025.
- Certified Origins reports that the downward trend continued in May 2025, driven by favorable weather and improved supply across major growing regions (excluding Italy, where stocks are tighter).
- However, markets are showing some stabilization in mid-2025, especially as producers and traders await the outlook for the 2025/26 crop year.
- The International Olive Council’s data indicates that in early July 2025, producer prices in Jaén (Spain) rose by a modest 0.4% week over week.
Thus, the baseline movement in 2025 has been a downward correction from earlier highs, but with signs that the decline may decelerate or even reverse depending on conditions.
Key Drivers of Price Changes
Several intertwined factors are driving these price dynamics:
- Harvest Volume and Weather Conditions
- After a few years of lower yields in some regions (due to drought, disease, or extreme weather), many olive-growing areas saw improved rainfall and agronomic conditions in 2024–2025, contributing to higher forecasted yields.
- Strong yields put downward pressure on prices, especially for bulk and lower-grade oils.
- On the flip side, localized weather risks (e.g. late frosts, heat waves, pests) remain as potential upside threats to supply.
- Stock Levels & Carryover Supply
- Some regions entered 2025 with moderate carryover stocks, which help buffer supply fluctuations.
- However, in places like Italy, stocks are tighter, which constrains how much the price can drop, particularly for premium oils.
- Cost Pressures (Inputs, Labor, Logistics)
- Rising input costs (fertilizer, fuel, equipment) impose upward pressure on producers.
- Logistics, packaging, and transport costs also influence the final delivered price, especially for exporters shipping over long distances.
- Inflationary pressures in many parts of the world continue to create cost squeezes in the supply chain.
- Demand Side Dynamics
- Global demand for olive oil remains relatively steady, supported by consumer awareness of health and Mediterranean diets, and use in foodservice.
- However, when unit prices rise too high, some buyers may switch to cheaper oils (sunflower, canola, etc.).
- Premium and specialty segments (organic, single-origin, cold-pressed) tend to show more price resilience.
- Trade, Tariffs and Regulations
- Export and import tariffs, quality regulations, and certification standards (PDO, PGI) can create premium differentials or barriers.
- Currency fluctuations and trade agreements also impact export-import margins.
- Speculation and Market Sentiment
- Traders’ expectations about the upcoming harvest (2025/26) can influence forward pricing and contract offers.
- If markets expect a weak next crop, prices may firm in advance despite current supply.
- Regional Variation & Quality Differentiation
Prices are not uniform: location and quality matter greatly.
- Spain: A major global producer, Spanish olive oil (especially industrial-grade) has seen sharper declines. Some conventional EVOO in Spain traded below €4.00/kg.
- Italy: Italian EVOO commands a premium in many markets due to branding, quality reputation, and limited volume. Its prices have been more resistant to decline.
- Greece: Markets in Greece are stabilizing after sharp early declines. Some EVOO prices in Greece are reported around €3.90–€4.20/kg (depending on region & quality).
- Tunisia, Turkey, North Africa: These non-EU producers also influence global supply. Tunisia is anticipating strong harvests, which could increase competitive pressure.
Quality distinctions — extra virgin, organic, single variety, early harvest — carry significant premiums, and these segments often deviate from bulk market trends.